Tennis Prediction Alejandro Tabilo vs Moïse Kouamé: Roland Garros

🇨🇱 Tabilo Q2 · 7.50 | 0.5u

• This is exactly the kind of long-term bet I love to take when the draw starts to open up and some details are still escaping the markets.

• First of all, the Chilean has benefited from Valentin Vacherot's walkover in the second round, which is a huge advantage at this stage of the tournament.

• While the majority of players in his quarter of the draw were engaged in battles in over 35 degrees, Tabilo remained quietly at rest, without spending a single drop of physical or mental energy.

• In a Grand Slam, this kind of detail can make a huge difference from the second week onwards.

• And his third round could be particularly favorable to him, as he will face Moïse Kouamé, who is already coming out of a huge five-set battle and who continues to discover the very high level.

• I have a hard time imagining the Frenchman having the tennis weapons or physical resources to compete with a player as complete as Tabilo over five sets.

• If this scenario is confirmed, it could also allow the Chilean to save a lot of energy before the more important deadlines.

• Then, a potential round of 16 match against Félix Auger-Aliassime does not particularly scare me for him: when we see the current difficulties of the Canadian on clay, especially in the backhand exchanges, I think Tabilo has all the weapons to make him falter.

• His left-handed profile, his quality of variation and his ability to break the rhythm are typically the kind of things that can bother Félix on this surface.

• And above all, the other big names in this part of the draw could arrive with a lot of miles in their legs: Cobolli will potentially have to go through Learner Tien then Francisco Cerundolo.

• These are two matches that can leave a lot of physical and mental traces.

• Cerundolo himself could also arrive impaired after several battles and that is precisely where I find this bet interesting.

• More than the pure level of play, it is perhaps the physical freshness that could make the difference in this section of the draw.

• Tabilo could simply be the freshest player when attacking the second week.

• At 7.50, the markets give him about 13.3% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, personally, I estimate his probability more around 17-18%.

• This is obviously not an easy bet to cash in, but in terms of pure value, I feel the price is too high for a player who benefits from a rather favorable draw and an ideal physical context.