Tennis Prediction Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev: Wimbledon

• First of all, we will have Jannik Sinner at 1.63 in this final, which could allow us to validate a nice 2 unit spot, given at the start of the tournament.

• And today, I clearly tend to trust Jannik Sinner to roll over Alexander Zverev, the -1.5 sets seems particularly interesting here.

• This is THE clash of this fortnight, between two players who have dominated the debates: Zverev will play a second Grand Slam final in a row after his triumph at Roland-Garros, Sinner is aiming for a 5th Major and a 2nd Wimbledon after his title in 2025.

• And I want to be honest, the Zverev of these last few weeks is no longer the same player. Freed from all pressure since his title at Roland-Garros, he serves steel, sends warheads on the forehand side, no longer holds back in his shots, it's a new Zverev.

• The proof: he will play his very first final here, he who had never gone beyond the 1/8 at Wimbledon and has NEVER won any tournament on grass, he has made a real leap forward in the last few days.

• But the narrative of this matchup is relentless: 9 straight losses to the Italian, 2 small sets taken out of the 19 played, and above all 6 consecutive defeats without winning a single set. Zverev hasn't beaten Sinner since the 2023 US Open.

• On his side, Jannik Sinner is coming off an absolutely monstrous semi-final match, during which he crushed Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.

• A clinical performance that has clearly reassured and has once again shown that the Italian can drastically raise his game in the matches that count.

• He also finishes the match without conceding a single break and winning more than 88% of the points behind his 1st serve.

• The statistics since the start of the tournament are also quite telling.

🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev

• 15h08 spent on the courts
• 81% of points won behind 1st serve
• 61% of points won behind 2nd serve
• 3.7 break points conceded per match

🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner

• 15h36 spent on the courts
• 85% of points won behind 1st serve
• 54% of points won behind 2nd serve
• 3.5 break points conceded per match

• Very close figures on paper, and Zverev's 61% behind his second serve is even higher, it must be said. Except that this figure was built against returners of a completely different caliber: today, he will be facing the best returner in the world.

• I have the feeling that the Italian still has an extra gear under the pedal, when Zverev seems to have already reached his glass ceiling since the start of the fortnight.

• Caution however: if the German serves as he has done for the past fifteen days and maintains this freedom, he is perfectly capable of grabbing a set in a tiebreaker, this is the scenario that makes this pick fail.

• But I have a hard time imagining him developing