Tennis Prediction Miomir Kecmanovic vs Sebastian Baez: Kitzbuhel

Kitzbuhel 🇦🇹

• Sebastian Baez has a recurring issue on the tour, and that issue is called Miomir Kecmanovic: three matches, three defeats, on three different surfaces. The market only makes him a timid favourite today, and that's exactly where I see value.

• The latest episode dates back to last year's Roland Garros, and it sums it all up: two sets ahead and two tie-breaks in the pocket for the Argentinian, and the Serb who still turns the table to win in five sets. Even on his best days, Baez hasn't found the formula.

• This is not a draw accident that repeats itself: Kecmanovic's flat hitting and early ball taking deprive Baez of what his tennis lives on, time and height. This profile makes him play badly, and the conditions of the day will amplify the phenomenon.

• Because this high-altitude clay, the two men don't approach it at all with the same preparation. Kecmanovic comes out of a week in Gstaad, same light air, same lively clay: a win, then a three-set battle lost on the wire against Juan Manuel Cerundolo, the one who eliminated Casper Ruud in the next round.

• Baez, on the other hand, comes straight from Bastad, a slow clay at sea level, the exact opposite of what awaits him here. And he leaves with a last image that weighs: swept away 6-1, 6-2 by Rublev, in less than an hour of play.

• It must be said frankly: these places have already smiled on the Argentinian, winner of the tournament in 2023 in conditions he had dominated from start to finish.

• But that champion is no longer the one who is presenting himself today: the Baez of 2026 has just dropped a set to the 1360th best player in the world before his Swedish correction, and against the player who has never let him win a match, the pedigree will not fill the gap in form.

• So I see the Serb impose his tempo from the start, derail the Argentinian's long diagonals, and extend a series that has never known an exception, in two or three sets.

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