Tennis Prediction Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx: US Open

US Open 🇺🇸

• Alexander Blockx won his round of 16 match last night, but he went through a physically tough part of the match.

• The problem? A rib that has been bothering him for a few days, painkillers taken before and during the match, and an admission afterwards: he was on the verge of retiring, and would have done so if he had lost the 3rd set.

• And he puts it best himself: having so much pain with so many painkillers in his body, that's not a good sign.

• His stats tell exactly the same story. In his first 3 matches, Blockx served 10, 17 then 17 aces, with 82%, 88% and 86% of points won behind his 1st serve. Yesterday, with the rib issue: 10 aces and 73%.

• 13% points lost on his 1st serve, and 7 aces less. The serve is the stroke that puts the most strain on a rib, and that's precisely where it showed.

• This is not the first time his body has let him down at this level. He retired in the 2nd round of this US Open last year, and in the final round of qualifying for the Australian Open in January.

• On the other side, Karen Khachanov has been ramping up since the start of the fortnight. Felix Auger-Aliassime, world #4, knocked out in 4 sets after losing the first. Benjamin Bonzi in 3. Then Learner Tien last night, in 5 sets, with the last two won 6-1 6-4 after a tiebreaker left behind.

• A player who finishes a match like that has no leg issues.

• In terms of workload and continuity, it's even on both sides: 15 sets each, 139 games for the Russian, 140 for the Belgian. Khachanov even spent the most time on court last night.

• I'm inclined to lay Blockx here, even if the Belgian's treatment worked, the wake-up call may be painful this morning, and against a player in full swing like Karen, it could be tough.

• And I expect to see the Russian close around 1.5/1.55!