Tennis Prediction Matteo Berrettini vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Roland Garros

🇮🇹 Berrettini · 1.64 | 1u

• Enough with the jokes about Juan Manuel Cerundolo, I feel the market continues to price Matteo Berrettini as if his body is going to give out at any moment, and it's understandable because for several years, we've talked more about his injuries than his tennis.

• Between the withdrawals, relapses, aborted comebacks and trips to the infirmary, many have ended up forgetting what kind of player Matteo Berrettini really is when he's on a court and capable of stringing matches together.

• Yet, since the start of this Roland-Garros, what he's showing is extremely solid, after three matches played, he has only conceded 5 breaks in total, 5 breaks in twelve sets, including a huge 5-set battle against Comesana.

• For a player whose physical condition is systematically questioned by everyone, this is far from trivial and, above all, I feel this matchup suits the Italian rather well.

• Many still summarize Berrettini as a big serve and a big forehand, but what has always been his strength is his ability to construct points to get exactly the ball he's looking for.

• Each exchange is prepared, thought out: he's not just a hitter, he's a player who knows exactly how to create the patterns he likes, and that's precisely what makes me think Juan Manuel Cerundolo is likely to suffer in the matchup today.

• The Argentine is an excellent clay-courter, a huge competitor and a particularly tactically intelligent player, but he operates in a completely different sphere.

• His game is based on variation, patience, higher trajectories and a constant search for margin in the rally against many players, and it works very well, but against Berrettini, it can become dangerous.

• Because every slightly slower ball, every ball that floats more in the air, is an invitation for Matteo to go around his backhand and trigger his huge forehand, and on a very dry clay court like this week in Paris, this weapon can do a lot of damage.

• Beyond the matchup, there is also a difference in standing that I find a bit forgotten today, Cerundolo is having a superb tournament, but we're still talking about a player who has built his career mainly on the Challenger circuit.

• On the other hand, Berrettini remains a former Wimbledon finalist, a multiple ATP winner and a player who has won more than 70% of his matches on clay courts throughout his career.

• When his body leaves him alone, he belongs to a 'superior' category, and I feel the market continues to evaluate his physical risks more than his real tennis level.