Tennis Prediction Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov: US Open

US Open 🇺🇸

• Since June 1st, Zverev has played a tiebreaker in 18 of his 23 matches.

• 78%: this is the highest rate I've measured on any player over the last 2 months, and he averages 10.42 games per set.

• In his 15 best-of-3 matches since June, 7 have gone beyond 3 sets.

• In this tournament, he needed 5 sets to beat Lorenzo Sonego, world #89, then 5 sets to beat Quentin Halys, world #52.

• On the other hand, Karen Khachanov is in great form in NYC, he has only dropped 3 sets so far, and has a 77% 1st serve points won average since the start of the week (vs 79% for Zverev).

• 6-3 H2H in Zverev's favor but Karen beat him 6-1 6-2 in Paris (2018), 6-3 6-3 in Montreal (2019), and 6-3 4-6 7-6 in Toronto last year. Their last complete match, he won.

• And most importantly, he's fresh. His quarterfinal ended with Alexander Blockx retiring at 6-2 7-5 3-2: 2 sets and 5 games.

• The risk, I name it, and it's real. Zverev's last 3 matches ended 3-0, 19 games won each time.

• He's taken the 1st set in 22 of his 23 matches since June but I tend to see the German as beatable, especially now that he knows he can win a 2nd Grand Slam.

• We need a set for the Russian, hoping to see Zverev a bit tense at the idea of reaching the final.