Tennis Prediction Thiago Tirante vs Arthur Fils: Cincinnati

🇺🇸 Cincinnati

• There is one data point that jumps out to me before this quarterfinal, and it doesn't go in the favorite's favor. This week in Cincinnati, Thiago Tirante has won 82% of points behind his first serve.

• Arthur Fils is at 78%. The better server in this match is not the one the market is pricing.

• The volume tells the same story: 50 aces for the Argentine in 4 matches, 16 for the Frenchman in 3.

• Against De Minaur yesterday, Fils served 2 aces in the entire match. He won it through the quality of his game, not his serve.

• And there's Tirante's mindset, which is the real subject of his fortnight. 5 tiebreaks played this week, 4 won. A first set lost 2-6 against Novak Djokovic, match won.

• A first set lost 5-7 against Jakub Mensik yesterday, match won as well. Add Taylor Fritz out in Montreal 2 weeks ago. This Argentine is no longer afraid of anyone.

• It gives very tight matches: his 4 tournament matches ended with 1, 0, 2 and 2 games difference.

• And his last defeat, against Tien in Montreal, was 4 games. Even that day, this line held.

• The argument on the other side is straightforward and I'll give it as is: Fils has wrapped up his 3 matches this week with 6, 7 and 5 games in hand.

• One of these two regimes will break on Friday, and if it's the Argentine's, the line jumps.

• But to take a 5 game lead on this Tirante, you need to break him twice.

• No one has managed that this week, and Fils will show up with the most discreet serve of his fortnight.