Stuttgart · Grass
Tennis Prediction Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios: Stuttgart
🎾
In brief:
- I'm staying with my logic of laying Nick Kyrgios, his name still weighs heavily in the markets, but at some point we have to look at the reality on the ground: he's playing very little, has had a series of physical problems for several seasons and no longer has the consistency of a top-level player.
- Yes, his serve remains a huge weapon and yes, grass is probably his best surface but I can't accept seeing him as the favourite in this match-up after such a long absence and with so much uncertainty about his real level.
- On the other side, Sho Shimabukuro is arriving in the exact opposite dynamic, the Japanese player is coming out of qualifying and has won three consecutive matches without dropping a single set.
- And most importantly, he just put in a very convincing performance by dominating Quentin Halys 6-4 6-2, a player who shares several characteristics with Kyrgios: big serve, aggressive game and a desire to shorten the rallies.
- This match is important because it shows that Shimabukuro is already perfectly adapted to the conditions in Stuttgart, he has rhythm, references and a lot of confidence behind the baseline.
- I also like his profile in this match-up, he moves well, takes the ball early and has shown since the beginning of the week that he can read the trajectories very well on grass.
- If the Japanese player manages to find the key on the return, I clearly see him capable of making Kyrgios doubt. Because the Australian is logically likely to lack references, rhythm and maybe even reaction time after being away from competition for so long.
- We sometimes continue to evaluate the Kyrgios version of Wimbledon 2022, whereas the player of today is a huge unknown and in such a demanding sport, coming back immediately to an ATP level after a long period of inactivity is extremely difficult, even for a talent as natural as him.
- The +2.5 games seems very interesting given the context, but honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Japanese go and get the win in the end.
Our Pick
Sho Shimabukuro
#95
Nick Kyrgios
#905
Tournament:
Stuttgart
Surface:
Grass
Our Bet
Confidence Level
70%
Good Confidence
Bet Details
1u
ML Sho Shimabukuro
@ 2.36
HC Sho Shimabukuro +2.5 (games)
@ 1.72
Best Odds
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