US Open · Hard
Tennis Prediction Ben Shelton vs Alexander Zverev: US Open
Our Pick
Ben Shelton
#8
Alexander Zverev
#2
Tournament:
US Open
Surface:
Hard
Our Bet
Confidence Level
70%
Good Confidence
Bet Details
1.7u
ML Ben Shelton
@ 10
Over 3.5 Games
@ 1.43
Best Odds
10 BwinVerified Track Record
+2.7%
ROI / Yield
55%
Win Rate
2.25
Avg. Odds
4,901
Verified Bets
Complete Analysis
Shelton OT100.45u
Over 3.5 sets Zverev Shelton1.431.25u
- Alexander Zverev has played 5 Grand Slam finals in his career. 4 of them went beyond 3 sets, and 3 went to the 5th set.
- Here in 2020, he led Dominic Thiem 2 sets to 0 and lost 7-6 in the 5th. At Roland Garros in June, he led Flavio Cobolli 2 sets to 1 and needed a 5th set to get his first title.
- His only final settled in 3 sets was the one where Jannik Sinner dominated him from start to finish in Melbourne. That's not the scenario tonight.
- Tonight, Zverev is the favourite, and he is for good reasons: 16 straight wins against lefties, 5 wins in 5 duels against Ben Shelton, a backhand that no one has managed to crack this fortnight.
- He can become the only player to win 2 Grand Slams this season, ahead of Sinner and Alcaraz, unthinkable at the start of the year.
- But look how Shelton is getting through this tournament: 6 matches, 5 beyond 3 sets. He lost the first set 3 times, 1-6 against Griekspoor, in a tiebreaker against Alcaraz, 4-6 against Tiafoe, and he won all 3 matches.
- He's not the kind of player who will go down in 3 quick sets in front of this crowd, especially with 23 years of American drought to erase, he'll play every set like a final.
- The stats of the 2 players on serve this week don't give us a 3-0 either: 79% of points won behind the first serve for Zverev, 77% for Shelton, and the American is even ahead behind the second, 55% against 52%.
- Two big servers, more than 10.4 games per set for each: this match will surely be decided on tiebreaks, and Zverev has played 2 on Friday against Khachanov, one where he trailed 4-1 with 2 set points against him. He was 2 points away from a 4th set in the semi-finals.
- The risk, I give it, because it is very real: Shelton has only taken one set out of 11 against Zverev, and he has lost their 4 tiebreaks. The sets are tight between them, but it's always the German who wins them.
- But Shelton seems totally possessed this week, as evidenced by his huge win over Carlos Alcaraz, the American doesn't lose his matches in 3 sets in NYC, and a whole stadium will push him to win his 1st Grand Slam title.
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