Tennis Prediction Juncheng Shang vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: Montreal

Montreal 🇨🇦

• Last October, Juncheng Shang eliminated Karen Khachanov in Shanghai. In January, he defeated Roberto Bautista Agut at the Australian Open. Today he is ranked 270th in the world.

• The explanation is in one line: he had foot surgery and disappeared from the circuit from late February to late July. His ranking tells the story of 5 months of absence, not his tennis. He was ranked 47th in the world.

• I'll immediately address what bothers me: he has won 3 matches this season, and he returned last week in Washington, losing against Kei Nishikori. I'm buying a level, not a dynamic.

• But when we put the two players on the same level scale, they come out exactly at the same index, despite the 200 ranking places that separate them. And as soon as we move to hard courts, it's the 270th-ranked player who takes the advantage.

• What separates them today is the surface. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo has built his season on clay: 33 of his 37 wins have been on that surface, and a good part in Challengers. On grass, he left without a single victory.

• The Canadian cement will pose questions to the Paraguayan returner that the European clay did not. I see Shang taking the match by the middle of the court and closing it in 2 sets, or in 3 if his foot reminds him that he's coming back from afar.