Tennis Prediction Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier: Hamburg

Hamburg 🇩🇪

🇺🇸 Paul -2.5 games (HC) · 1.69 | 0.5u

🇺🇸 Paul vs 🇦🇷 Ugo Carabelli · 1.97 | 0.5u

• For me, no surprise today in Hamburg.

• On one side, Tommy Paul, the American, is coming off a huge battle won against Tomas Martin Etcheverry, a match that had all the makings of a trap given the level displayed by the Argentine on clay since the start of the season.

• And precisely, this victory reassures me enormously, we feel a Tommy Paul who is gradually gaining in power, who is regaining very good sensations in the rallies and who is beginning to impose his rhythm with much more consistency.

• Against Daniel Altmaier, I really have a hard time seeing the German compete over the long haul.

• For me, Paul is clearly better in almost every area: more physically solid, better movement, more reliable in long rallies as well as a better ability to vary his game.

• I'm also quite surprised to see Altmaier at this price. Yes, he's playing at home, but apart from that, his season remains relatively mediocre.

• His victory against Ben Shelton in the previous round is nice on paper, but honestly, the American was very far from his best level and I don't think we should overestimate this result.

• I rather expect to see Paul apply a lot of physical pressure, extend the rallies and gradually exhaust the German.

• And given the draw that opens up in front of him, he clearly has a good opportunity to go and get a new ATP title.

• On the other side, I'm also quite surprised to find Kovacevic in the quarterfinals.

• After his defeat in qualifying against Gea, he inherits a lucky loser spot and ultimately manages to take advantage of a Felix Auger-Aliassime who is still very unconvincing on clay.

• But today, the context changes completely, Carabelli is a pure clay-courter.

• He's a player who loves these conditions, capable of maintaining an infernal pace from the back of the court and above all of systematically making his opponents play one more shot.

• And his week is far from 'anodyne', he is coming off some very nice wins against Frances Tiafoe and Kamil Majchrzak, with a lot of control in the rallies each time.

• Against a player like Kovacevic, who likes to shorten the points and rely on his serve, I think the Argentine will quickly manage to impose his pace.