Tennis Prediction Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe: US Open

US Open 🇺🇸

• Daniil Medvedev arrived in New York with 4 losses in his last 5 matches. Since then, he has played 9 sets and lost none. Hugo Gaston, Sebastian Gorzny, Arthur Rinderknech: 86 games in 3 rounds, and not a single decisive game.

• His serve carries it all. 34 aces in 3 matches, and never less than 83% of points won behind his first serve.

• On the other hand, Frances Tiafoe has played 11 sets and 110 games, with a 5-set match against Martin Damm in the first round.

• They know each other well, and the record is one-sided: 6 wins for Medvedev in 8 meetings, 6 out of 6 on the ATP circuit on hard courts.

• The last time here, in 2020, at the same stage of the tournament: 6-4 6-1 6-0. The last time overall, in Brisbane in January: 6-3 6-2.

• And on hard courts, his season remains that of a top 10 member: 23 wins for 8 losses, the titles in Brisbane and Dubai, a final in Indian Wells with Carlos Alcaraz beaten in the semifinals. In this tournament, he has 36 wins for 8 losses, with the 2021 title.

• I'll give you what's going against it now, Tiafoe has had the better summer of the two, and by far: the title in Halle with Taylor Fritz beaten in the final, a final in Cincinnati 2 weeks after hand surgery, beating Auger-Aliassime, Musetti and this Brandon Nakashima who had just beaten Medvedev.

• 18 wins for 6 losses since June, 2 semifinals here, and he's playing at home.

• But for 7 years, on the circuit and on hard courts, Tiafoe has never found the solution against Medvedev. And the Medvedev of this fortnight looks like the one from January, not the one from August.

• I see him going through in 3 or 4 sets, but at that price, I see a nice opportunity.

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