Tennis Prediction Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima: Cincinnati

🇺🇸 Cincinnati

• The market offers us this match at around 55-45 for Daniil Medvedev, but look at the numbers and tell me if you see a 55/45: 20 wins for 6 losses on hard courts this season for Medvedev, 3-0 in their head-to-head, and on this surface Nakashima has never taken a set from him.

• 4 sets played on hard courts between them, 4 for the Russian, including a 6-2 7-6 in January in Brisbane.

• The mechanism is known to the whole tour: Nakashima is an excellent server who builds everything on his serve, and Medvedev is one of the best returners in history.

• This duel, the Russian has been playing it for 10 years against all the servers in the world, and he wins it almost always the same way: he returns everything, he waits, and his opponents end up giving in once per set.

• I must respect the Nakashima of this summer: he beat Jodar in Montreal, which almost no one has managed, and his record on hard courts (19 wins for 9 losses) is solid. The 3-0 in their duels was built against a Nakashima less strong than the one today, that's the real nuance of the file.

• Add the crowd, which will be American, and the fact that Medvedev has off days, like against Van de Zandschulp two weeks ago. This is not an 'easy' spot.

• But when a player with 77% of wins on the surface, undefeated against his opponent, is offered at almost even odds, I don't look any further. I take the returner.