Tennis Prediction Carlos Alcaraz vs Ben Shelton: US Open

US Open 🇺🇸

🇪🇸 Alcaraz OT · 1.70 | 2u (PMU Sport)

• I tried to bet against Carlos Alcaraz in this tournament, and I owe you a mea culpa. The Spaniard is playing at a stratospheric level, which is crazy for a return to competition after 4 and a half months off.

• The figures of his fortnight do not lie: 4 matches, 13 sets played, only 1 lost, and Tommy Paul crushed 6-4 6-3 6-4 in the round of 16.

• His serve is improving with each round: 67% of points won behind his 1st serve in R1, 74% on Sunday. I clearly see him as the favourite and above the rest for the title.

• The big challenge for his opponents will be to take him to troubled waters, in 4 or 5 sets (which would already be an exploit). Except that his career record in 5 sets is 15 wins for 1 loss.

• Only one, against Berrettini in Melbourne in 2022. Since then, 12 in a row. It's terrifying, and it says how hard he will be to dislodge.

• Big test in the quarter-finals against Ben Shelton, who just swept Tsitsipas. But Shelton has never beaten Alcaraz: 3 losses, only 1 set won.

• And Alcaraz returns way too well for what I've seen of Shelton so far, with a real danger on his second serve. 17 double faults in 4 matches.

• Behind, Tiafoe or Michelsen in the semis. Tiafoe, Alcaraz has beaten him 2 times in Grand Slams, 2 times in 5 sets, including the semi-final here in 2022.

• And in the other half, Zverev has not reassured: 2 matches in 5 sets from the first 2 rounds, against Sonego and against Halys. Their last duel was the Melbourne semi-final in January. Alcaraz won it in 5 sets.

• The 3 men who beat him this season are no longer in the draw. Sinner is out, Medvedev is out, and Korda is not there.

• The path seems open for Carlos, which gives us the opportunity to balance the books on all our OT spots taken at the beginning of the week.

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