Tennis Prediction Bu Yunchaokete vs Michael Zheng: Hangzhou

Hangzhou 🇨🇳

• Bu Yunchaokete, this is where he had the best week of his career. Invited to Hangzhou in 2024 when he was world #124, he had beaten Gaston, then 2nd seed Khachanov, then Kukushkin, for the first ATP semifinal of his career.

• Last year on this same court, he had only conceded at the tiebreak of the 3rd set against Zhang, after 2h47. When he plays in Hangzhou, he often goes very far in the tournament.

• Michael Zheng arrives with the wind in his sails, and he deserves it. He beat Bu 3 weeks ago in the 2nd round of the US Open, in 4 sets, with 13 aces and 48 winners. His season is Norrie, Korda, Humbert, and 3 third rounds in Grand Slams or Masters 1000.

• But the American has never played an official match in Asia. He finished his week on Saturday in California, in Tiburon, where he was defending his title, beaten in the semifinals 7-6 7-6. 2 lost tiebreaks, and then 15 hours of time difference to absorb for Thursday.

• Yunchaokete Bu, on the other hand, is not in distress, he is just below his 2025 ranking. This summer he won 2 Challenger titles on grass, then he entered the US Open as a lucky loser and beat Jodar, 12th seed, 6-2 6-1 6-1. The first lucky loser to beat a top 15 seed in the 1st round of the US Open in the Open era.

• The season statistics on hard courts are also quite telling.

🇨🇳 Bu Yunchaokete

• 6.6 aces per match
• 77% of points won behind his 1st serve
• 48% of break points converted
• 12 tiebreaks won out of 24 this season

🇺🇸 Michael Zheng

• 5.7 aces per match
• 73% of points won behind his 1st serve
• 47% of break points converted
• 7 tiebreaks won out of 21 this season

• Bu serves better than Zheng on hard courts this season, and he's playing in front of his home crowd, on the court where he had his best week. Zheng is the in-form player, but he's also the one discovering everything: the country, the balls, the conditions and the time difference.

• I see a 3-set match, with a tiebreak at the end, and I want to be on the side of the player who is used to winning them here.