Tennis Prediction Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone: Montreal

Montreal 🇨🇦

• Mariano Navone took a ticket from me yesterday. 11 break points saved out of 12 to eliminate Matteo Berrettini: nothing to say, it's a rare defensive exploit. Precisely, tonight, I'm on the other side of the net.

• Because those nights don't replay twice in a row. Saving 11 break points out of 12, that's not a level of play, it's a perfect night. The rest of his Monday sheet was much more ordinary.

• The bottom of the surface, then. Navone is a pure clay-courter, he says it himself: he hadn't set foot on a hard court before 2021. His career record on the surface is negative, and his first title on hard came last March, in a Challenger. The player is progressing, the bottom remains ochre.

• Valentin Vacherot, on the other hand, is having the season of his life. Winner in Shanghai in the fall, semifinalist in Monte-Carlo in the spring with Lorenzo Musetti and Alex De Minaur along the way, 18th in the world today. He's evolving a category above.

• And these two know each other: they played in March, in Miami, on hard. 6-3 6-4 Vacherot, without shaking. The only previous one is recent, on the surface of the day, and it is clear.

• My reserve, I give it: Vacherot hasn't played for 13 days, his last hard court match dates back to that Miami in March, and he's coming off 2 losses on clay. The start can be searched, especially since Navone's return is very real.

• But a top 20 player who has already settled his opponent on this surface, against a clay-courter who has already spent his perfect night this week: I take this power ratio. Vacherot in two tight sets, or in three if the start is paid for.