Tennis Prediction Valentin Vacherot vs Raphaël Collignon: Gstaad

Gstaad 🇨🇭

• This quarter-final brings together a 'miracle worker' and a 'stakhanovite' of the tie-break, and it's exactly the kind of casting that takes me back to the over 10.5 games S1 between the two players.

• The 'stakhanovite' is Raphaël Collignon. Three of his five sets this week have gone to a tie-break, including the two yesterday to eliminate Sonego, 7-6, 7-6 in 2h08. The Belgian doesn't let go of his serve, doesn't always take the opponent's, and turns each set into an arm-wrestle.

• He said it himself after his qualification: he has tamed the altitude. His first ATP quarter-final on clay has been built on this, on a commitment that no one has managed to derail since Monday.

• The 'miracle worker' is Valentin Vacherot. First match since his withdrawal from Roland Garros, six weeks off for a stubborn foot, and on Wednesday the arm responded immediately: 13 aces, 73% of points won behind the first serve, and a comeback against Hanfmann 4-6, 6-3, 6-3.

• Look at his first set of the comeback, by the way: ten games, no gifts. Even rusty, even short of bearings, the Monegasque doesn't offer his serve, and a single opportunity was enough to make the difference.

• This is the typical profile of a player making a comeback: the serve mechanics come back right away, the finesse of the return takes more time. Facing the most solid server of the week, this gap promises service games that fly by.

• We also need to look at the H2H: one win each, and never on clay. Third round of a duel without ascendancy, on a 'virgin' surface: no one is going to give away their first serves to test things.

• Two difficult serves to break, a duel without hierarchy, and a Belgian who plays extra time in almost every set: I see this first set settling in for the long haul and being decided late, very late.