Tennis Prediction Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex De Minaur: Washington

🇺🇸 Washington

• The head-to-head record between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex De Minaur is 12-1, with the Australian's sole victory coming in Acapulco in 2024. A statistic like this at this level is no coincidence.

• It's a matter of matchup. De Minaur lives off speed and court coverage, he needs to get into the rally to exist. Against the Greek's serve and forehand, he doesn't get in when he wants, he gets in when he's allowed.

• And this is not an old story: the last time they met, in March in Miami on hard courts, Tsitsipas won 6-3, 7-6(3), without needing a third set.

• Let's be honest about the gap today: De Minaur is world number 5, at his career-high ranking, he is the defending champion here, and Tsitsipas comes to Washington as world number 51 with a wildcard. On paper, it's not even a debate.

• Except that the paper said exactly the same thing in Miami in March, with the same ranking gap, and it didn't change the scenario at all.

• There's also the context of the last few weeks. Tsitsipas arrives with a title in Gstaad, his first in sixteen months, clinched after four three-set matches in the week. De Minaur, on the other hand, hasn't played a single match since his Wimbledon fourth round.

• And Stefanos said, his goal is to beat several top 10 players this season, and that necessarily goes through a strong performance against the Australian.

• The classic trap of the one-handed backhand is the high ball, and the bounce in Washington is rising. But the Australian is not a looper who explodes the ball over the shoulder: he plays fast, tense, flat. This is precisely the type of ball that allows Tsitsipas to shift and hit his forehand.

• I'm not asking the Greek to overturn the defending champion to get paid, I'm asking him to do what he's been doing to this player since 2018: a long, contested match, where the Australian has to build everything himself.

• I see this match going the distance, with at least a set for Tsitsipas and a score that remains tight until the end.

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