Montreal · Hard
Tennis Prediction Tien vs Ben Shelton: Montreal
Leo Vithoontien
#695
Ben Shelton
#8
Tournament:
Montreal
Surface:
Hard
Our Bet
Confidence Level
70%
Good Confidence
Bet Details
0.65u
HC Leo Vithoontien +3.5 (games)
@ 1.57
Best Odds
1.57 BwinVerified Track Record
+2.7%
ROI / Yield
55%
Win Rate
2.25
Avg. Odds
4,901
Verified Bets
Complete Analysis
Tien +3.5 games (HC)1.570.65u
- Learner Tien and Ben Shelton have faced each other 2 times.
- At Indian Wells in March, on hard court, the final gap was 2 games. In Mallorca last year, it was 3 games.
- This cut requires less than 4 games difference: their two previous ones fell into this category, and Tien won them both.
- This 20-year-old boy is going through this fortnight without making a noise: Gaël Monfils, then Tommy Paul swept 6-3 6-2, then Tirante, then Merida. Four matches, four wins, and not a single set dropped since the first round.
- And the conditions are in his favor tonight. The Montreal courts are the slowest of the season, we play at night in a cold air, and the American across is living off his serve. Slowing down the ball is taking away a part of his free points, and giving them to the better returner of the two.
- My reservations, grouped, and the first one hurts: Ben Shelton is playing the best tennis of the tournament. He hasn't lost a single set in 4 matches, and he eliminated Jakub Mensik 6-3 6-1 with 89% of points won behind his first serve.
- He is also the defending champion, and he displays 17 wins for 5 losses on hard this season.
- Second reservation, and it is directly linked to this ticket: Shelton is breaking a lot lately, up to 2 break points converted out of three against Mensik.
- Finally, Tien's serve is the weak point of his game: zero aces during his quarterfinal. He holds his service games through placement, not power, and the day his return doesn't respond, he has no safety net.
- But these two don't know how to play a wide match. Two encounters, two gaps of two and three games, and tonight a court that makes the serve ordinary. 3.5 games margin, I'll take them.
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