Tennis Prediction Frances Tiafoe vs Martin Damm: US Open

US Open 🇺🇸

• Since June 1st, Martin Damm has averaged 10.6 games per set and Frances Tiafoe 9.9. The pair's average is 10.3.

• Three sets at this pace make 31 games. Four sets make 41.

• The line is at 40.5. So a match in 3 sets goes well under, a match in 4 is a coin flip, and a match in 5 always goes over.

• In other words, it's a bet on a straight-sets win or a 4-set match with one set wrapped up quickly, nothing else.

• And Tiafoe is coming off the best week of his season: finalist in Cincinnati, with Lorenzo Sonego, Learner Tien, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti and Brandon Nakashima beaten along the way. 4 of these 5 wins in 2 sets.

• It's also his tournament. He's played 2 semifinals here, and he'll play in front of his home crowd.

• The counterargument is across the net, and it's tough: Martin Damm has the highest games per set total on my entire card, 10.64. A 2m03 lefty, he takes it to tiebreaks, 4 times in his last 8 matches.

• And he just took out Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-3, conceding only 5 points behind his first serve.

• If Damm grabs a tiebreak set, we're looking at 4 sets and the ticket is in trouble.

• But here, I'm betting on a Tiafoe who won't let that door open.