Tennis Prediction Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar: Washington

Washington 🇺🇸

• Rafael Jodar is not a big server. His real strength is the return: at 19 years old, he is already one of the best returners on the circuit.

• And that changes the shape of his matches. A big server can inflict a 6-2, 6-2 on you without you having seen the ball. Jodar, on the other hand, wins by attrition, game after game, and his scores often remain tight even when he dominates.

• There is a precedent between the two, and it is very fresh: in March, in Indian Wells, on hard court, Alejandro Tabilo beat him 6-1, 6-2.

• I'm not saying that this match is still proof. Jodar has exploded since then: 24th in the world, 42 wins this season, and a week where he eliminated Arthur Fils, Kei Nishikori then Lorenzo Musetti.

• But Tabilo has also changed since Monday. He arrived in Washington without winning anything on hard court for months, and he has just chained Griekspoor, Atmane, then Ben Shelton, the world No. 8, overturned after losing the first set. 3 big matches in 5 days, this is no longer an accident.

• And there is the way. This week, Tabilo wins 81% of the points behind his 1st serve and hits more than 10 aces per match, compared to 76% and 4.1 aces for Jodar. On serve, the best figures are for the Chilean, and a serve that holds, that's a score that stays tight.

• I'm not asking him to do a 6-1 6-2 again. I'm just asking for a tight match, with a set that can tip the scales and a gap that never widens. Given the week of the two, this is the most likely scenario.