Tennis Prediction Iga Swiatek vs Marta Kostyuk: Toronto

Toronto 🇨🇦

• The books have a rare admission to make about this Kostyuk-Swiatek: they don't know. Barely 55% for the Pole once their margin is removed. A quarter-final between the world's 8th and 11th, brought back to tennis.

• And I'll be honest: I don't know either. So tonight, no camp. I'm playing the only thing this matchup promises: resistance on both sides of the net.

• Kostyuk first. 30 wins for 6 losses this season, 11th in the world, and an impressive week: Madison Keys swept 6-3 6-1, with 94% of points won behind her 1st serve. She's not here to make up the numbers.

• Above all, she has already beaten Swiatek this season: 7-5 6-1 at Roland-Garros, 2 months ago. This duel has long been one-sided, it is no longer.

• Swiatek, on the other hand, is crossing the draw without giving anything away: 2 expeditious wins here, 25 wins this season including 14 on hard. You don't take a set from this version without deserving it.

• Honesty now: their 4 meetings have all remained under 21 games. And 2 of the best returners on the circuit can produce a 6-2 as quickly as a 7-5. If one of the 2 serves below her level, this ticket dies early.

• But these short matches belonged to a hierarchy that no longer exists. In 2024, Swiatek would have been the overwhelming favorite. Tonight, the market can no longer separate them, and when 2 players of this level arrive fresh and even, the sets are fought to the end.

• A set at 7-5 somewhere and the rest within the limits, or simply a 3rd set: the paths to 21 games are numerous as soon as no one gives up.

• I expect a battle that ends late, that's the goal of our 2 spots.