Tennis Prediction Dane Sweeny vs Shintaro Mochizuki: Montreal

🇨🇦 Montreal

• The market has designated a favourite in this match, and this favourite has won 8 matches on hard courts this season for 16 losses. One third of wins on the surface of the day, it's the kind of detail that is not seen in a world ranking separated by 7 places.

• Shintaro Mochizuki is a very good grass court player, he has shown it at Wimbledon by eliminating Rafael Jodar and pushing Jannik Sinner. On hard courts, it's another story, and his North American July confirms it: eliminated in the first round in Winnipeg, out in his second match in Vancouver.

• Dane Sweeny comes out of the same tournament as him, on the same courts. He is not a lightning bolt either, but his record on this surface is simply above.

• The market is actually starting to realize this on its own. The Japanese player's odds have been drifting since this morning's opening, which means that the money that counts is not buying this favourite status.

• I readily admit what bothers me in this bet: neither of them dominates their subject, they are a few places apart, and these are exactly the matches where everything can turn on three points.

• That's precisely why I'm taking the set first, I see the Australian capable of bothering him in this duel.