Tennis Prediction Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jannik Sinner: Wimbledon

Wimbledon 🍓

• On paper, obviously, Sinner is supposed to dominate this matchup.

• The two players do not play in the same sphere in terms of tennis IQ, game reading and tactical quality.

• Sinner is much more complete, much cleaner, and should logically manage to make Struff play in uncomfortable areas but at this stage of the tournament, I find the handicap interesting.

• Because Sinner does not give the same impression of domination as usual.

• We've seen him more in difficulty against Mochizuki, Borges, Brooksby or even Kecmanovic.

• He wins, he advances, but he doesn't steamroll everyone with the authority we're used to seeing from him.

• We still feel a player who is looking for his true cruising speed on this Wimbledon and against a profile like Struff, that can count.

• The German was clearly not expected at this stage of the competition but he is there, and not by chance.

• Beating Medvedev, Hurkacz or even Nakashima on grass is not trivial, it mainly shows a player full of confidence, who plays freely and who has little left to lose.

• And when Struff evolves in this state of mind, he can become very dangerous.

• He hits hard, takes a lot of risks, advances on the court as soon as he has the opportunity and can chain very quick service games.

• This week, he really gives the impression of playing with his eyes closed. Everything goes in the court, he is very aggressive, and his direct tennis works perfectly on grass.

• Of course, Sinner will have the tactical keys to make him fail, he can force him to hit one more ball, make him move, vary the areas and exploit his moments of haste.

• But I'm not sure he has as much leeway as the markets suggest.

• With a Struff so confident, capable of holding his serves and snatching a set or several close sets, the +7.5 games seems too high.

• I obviously continue to see Sinner as the favorite to reach the next round of the tournament but between an Italian who is not yet completely dominating his Wimbledon and a Struff on fire for several matches, I think there is room to see the German stay within the limits of this handicap.