Tennis Prediction Jan-Lennard Struff vs Aleksandr Shevchenko: Kitzbuhel

Kitzbuhel 🇦🇹

• At 36 years old, Jan-Lennard Struff is coming off the best two weeks of his career: his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon, beating Medvedev in 3 sets, and it took Sinner to stop his run. This is the man I'm backing today in two bets against Aleksandr Shevchenko.

• The return to clay is no issue when it's played in Kitzbuhel: in the Austrian Alps air, his first serve gains even more power, the points get shorter, and his big-hitting game finds a surface that suits him. This profile has always been tailored for these conditions.

• I won't play the amnesiac though: Shevchenko is coming off a semifinal in Gstaad, with 4 high-altitude matches in his legs, including a win over Halys without ever dropping serve, while Struff hasn't hit a ball in competition since London. On paper, the rhythm is Kazakh.

• But the history between the two tells the rest: two meetings, two wins for the German. And the reason goes beyond their duel: against big servers who take control of the rhythm, Shevchenko struggles, his last two losses at altitude, Bublik last year, Tsitsipas on Saturday, bear exactly this signature.

• The second leg of the ticket is self-evident: Shevchenko's last three first sets in Gstaad, it's two tiebreaks and a 6-4, not one was settled before 10 games. Add one of the heaviest serves on tour on the other side, and the first set is set to stretch.

• So I see a grueling first set that will go the distance, then Struff's experience and weight of first serve tipping the scales in a match between two big servers, in 2 or 3 sets.