Tennis Prediction Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances Tiafoe: Cincinnati

🇺🇸 Cincinnati

• First, the facts. On August 7th, Frances Tiafoe retired in Montreal, trailing 6-2 2-0. The next day, he underwent surgery on a cyst in his hand. The usual recovery time to return to high-level competition after this type of procedure is 4 to 6 weeks. Tonight, he's playing again. 9 days after the surgery, without a single warm-up match.

• Facing him, an opponent he's never liked playing against: Lorenzo Sonego has won 3 of their 4 previous meetings, all on hard courts. The Italian's big serve deprives Tiafoe of what fuels his game, the rhythm, and a freshly operated hand won't improve his touch or grip.

• Sonego did exactly what was needed on Friday: 6-3 6-3 against Shang, 72% of points won behind the first serve. The serve is firing.

• I have to tell you the other side. The Italian's season has been poor, he's been losing close matches for months, and Tiafoe has chosen to play: a tournament finalist doesn't line up two weeks before the US Open if his team doesn't believe his hand is capable of holding up. This gamble can backfire against a courageous Tiafoe who serves big and shortens the points.

• Hence the two options. One set, that's the minimum requirement against an impaired player who's never known how to dominate this serve. The full match, that's the scenario where nine days are not enough, and the history of sports medicine says they rarely are.