Tennis Prediction Lorenzo Sonego vs Mariano Navone: Mallorca

Mallorca 🇪🇸

• Honestly, I find the match-up to be much better for the Italian than what the markets suggest.

• First of all, because we're talking about a player who has always been very comfortable on grass.

• His serve, his forehand and his ability to quickly take the initiative fit perfectly with the playing conditions in Mallorca.

• On the other side, Mariano Navone remains primarily a clay court player, the Argentinian has made a lot of progress in recent months but grass is clearly not his natural surface.

• And there's one point that I find particularly important: Navone will be playing his very first match of the season on grass today.

• We often underestimate the difficulty of this transition.

• The footwork is different, the movement as well, the bounce is much lower and the rallies are often played in a maximum of two or three shots.

• Arriving without any reference on the surface against a specialist like Sonego is never an ideal situation.

• What I also like here is the head-to-head: Lorenzo Sonego leads 2-0 in the direct confrontations.

• Stylistically, Sonego has exactly the weapons to bother Navone.

• His serve allows him to collect a lot of free points and his offensive game often prevents the Argentinian from settling into the long rallies he enjoys.

• I also like the fact that the Italian arrives with more references on the surface.

• Even if his results have sometimes been inconsistent in recent months, he remains a player who has always been able to raise his level on grass.

• His experience on grass is vastly superior to Navone's and that can make a huge difference in the early matches of the season.

• On the other hand, Navone remains an exceptional fighter, he will run everywhere, return a lot of balls and try to make the match physical.

• But on grass, this game plan is often much more difficult to implement.

• The rallies are shorter, the break opportunities rarer and the serve becomes crucial.

• And in this area, the advantage seems to me to be clearly on Sonego's side.

• I think the Italian will regularly have the opportunity to take control of the points from the first shots.

• If his first serve percentage is correct, I have a hard time seeing Navone find enough openings on the return, especially for a comeback on grass.

• Between the favorable H2H, the surface advantage, the experience on grass and the fact that Navone is playing his first match of the season on grass, I want to trust Lorenzo Sonego today.