Tennis Prediction Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Gaston: Hangzhou

Hangzhou 🇨🇳

• I feel like trusting Sho Shimabukuro for his opening match in Hangzhou, against a Hugo Gaston who remains primarily a clay court player.

• The Japanese player is 29 years old and is having the best season of his career: 1st ATP quarterfinal in June in Stuttgart coming through qualifying, beating Halys and Kyrgios along the way, entered the top 100 shortly after and reached his career-high ranking at the end of August.

• He arrives with some rhythm: 2 singles wins in the Davis Cup last weekend in Auckland. Modest opponents, but matches under his belt and a short flight to China.

• Gaston has arguments, and the first one is the H2H: 6-2 6-1 7-6 at the 2023 US Open. The Japanese player has also lost 5 matches in a row in the 1st round on tour since July.

• But this H2H is 3 years old, Shimabukuro was then outside the top 150, and the 5 losses were against Cilic, Hurkacz, Kecmanovic and Rinderknech, big servers who have nothing to do with what Gaston brings on hard courts.

• Add 25 days without a match since Medvedev at the US Open, and 3 matches played in China in his entire career for 3 losses, including a 1st round here in 2024.

• The season statistics on hard courts are also quite telling.

🇯🇵 Sho Shimabukuro

• 6.7 aces per match
• 72% of points won behind his 1st serve
• 39% of break points converted by his opponents
• 15 tiebreaks won out of 24 this season

🇫🇷 Hugo Gaston

• 2.8 aces per match
• 71% of points won behind his 1st serve
• 46% of break points converted by his opponents
• 6 tiebreaks won out of 12 this season

• The two serves hold up more or less equally on paper, except one saves himself with aces and the other suffers on return. Without a big server on the court, everything will come down to break points and tiebreaks, and that's exactly where the Japanese player has the advantage this season.

• At this price, I really feel like trying the Nippon on his continent, I see value in it.