Tennis Prediction Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor: US Open

US Open 🇺🇸

• Here, we are more or less on the same type of analysis as the Tiafoe vs Damm, it's the same logic.

• One figure above all: since June 1st, Ben Shelton is averaging 10.1 games per set and Tallon Griekspoor 10.3. The pair's average is 10.18.

• Three sets at this pace make 30 games. Four sets make 41. The line is set at 36.5.

• Translation: this line is not played on games, it is played on a number of sets. The match needs to go to 4 sets, or it needs to last 3 very long sets, like 7-6 7-6 7-5.

• What speaks for the length: two big servers who return moderately: Griekspoor just came out of a 7-6 7-5 against Lorenzo Sonego, which is 12.5 games per set, and he eliminated Alexander Zverev, the world number 1 seed, in his first round in Montreal.

• What speaks against it, and it's serious: Griekspoor is the most inconsistent player on the tour lately. He beats Zverev in Montreal, and then loses 6-3 6-1 to Daniel Merida. When he's not on, his sets collapse.

• And Shelton remains a more solid player. He retained his title in Montreal without losing a single set throughout the tournament.

• I'm still taking it, because a Dutchman capable of eliminating Zverev is not a player you sweep in three short sets. But I'm not selling it as a comfortable bet.

• And above all, Griekspoor often tends to shine when he's not expected, he evolves at a higher level in an underdog position, and I see him capable of taking a set here.