Tennis Prediction Juncheng Shang vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: Montreal

• Last October, Juncheng Shang eliminated Karen Khachanov in Shanghai. In January, he defeated Roberto Bautista Agut at the Australian Open. Today he is ranked 270th in the world.

• The explanation is one-line: he had foot surgery and disappeared from the circuit from late February to late July. His ranking reflects 5 months of absence, not his tennis. He was ranked 47th in the world.

• I'll immediately address what concerns me: he has won 3 matches this season, and he returned last week in Washington, losing against Kei Nishikori. I'm buying a level, not a dynamic.

• But when we put the two players on the same level scale, they come out exactly at the same index, despite the 200 ranking places that separate them. And as soon as we move to hard courts, it's the 270th-ranked player who takes the advantage.

• What separates them today is the surface. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo built his season on clay: 33 of his 37 wins were on that surface, and a good part in Challengers. On grass, he left without a single win.

• The Canadian cement will ask the Paraguayan returner questions that the European clay did not pose. I see Shang taking the match by the middle of the court and closing it in 2 sets, or in 3 if his foot reminds him that he's coming back from afar.

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