Tennis Prediction Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Emiliana Arango: Cincinnati

🇺🇸 Cincinnati (Q)

• Emiliana Arango has only 1 win on hard courts this season in 10 matches played. Her wins this year came on grass and clay, never on cement.

• On the other hand, Aliaksandra Sasnovich has 14 wins on this surface this year. However, the rankings say the opposite: the Colombian is world #97, the Belarusian #141. This discrepancy is precisely what I'm looking for, because on a hard court, the ranking lies and the results column tells the truth.

• These two players know each other very well: the Belarusian has already beaten her last year in Vic. I mention it as a fact because it was on clay and it went to a third-set tiebreaker.

• My reservations: Sasnovich hasn't played in 22 days, and before this break she had 2 losses in 3 matches. Add to that Arango's terrible 1-9 record, which was built against main draw players of a higher caliber than what she faces tonight: the figure remains damning, it's not magical.

• That's why I'm going with a half-stake, on a preliminary round where the data is thin but at 1.54, I'm taking it without hesitation.