Tennis Prediction Elena Rybakina vs Iga Swiatek: Toronto

🇨🇦 Toronto

• Elena Rybakina is world #2, she won the Australian Open in January and has a 26-5 record on hard courts this season.

• Iga Swiatek is #8 and playing her first final of the year tonight. Yet, she is the favourite, and this gap is what brings me here.

• Their last 2 meetings were on hard, the Kazakh won both, and in those 5 sets Swiatek only won 13 games.

• The stats since the start of the tournament are also quite telling.

• Rybakina has won between 69% and 80% of points behind her 1st serve in each of her 5 matches. Swiatek has served 3 aces in 5 matches, and dropped to 53% then 56% behind her 1st serve in her 2 three-set matches.

• The issue with this bet, I'll put it on the table right away.

• In their 9 hard court matches, Rybakina lost 5 times, by 3, 5, 5, 5 and 6 games, and she won the other 4, by 4, 4, 7 and 8 games. She's never lost by 1 or 2 games against her.

• The margin I'm buying tonight has never separated them.

• The second reservation is physical, and it's heavy: Rybakina has spent 11h36 on court since the start of the tournament, she finished her semi-final around 1am after a rain-delayed evening, and she's playing her 3rd match in 3 days. Swiatek, on the other hand, had her rest day on Tuesday.

• What I still keep: on hard, the baseline level puts the Kazakh ahead, not behind, and the market pays her as a clear underdog. It's the only argument that holds up tonight, and it's enough for me for one unit.