Tennis Prediction Royer vs Daniil Medvedev: Hangzhou

🇨🇳 Hangzhou

• The Frenchman is back on the court where he had the best week of his career a year ago, when he came through qualifying and defeated 3 seeded players in a row: Andrey Rublev, the world #1, then Learner Tien and Corentin Moutet. He only lost in the final against Bublik, 7-6 7-6.

• He resumed his journey on Wednesday on the same courts, 6-3 6-4 against Adam Walton. In his career, that's 7 wins for 1 loss in Hangzhou.

• On paper, everything favors Medvedev: #1 seed, world #6, finalist at Indian Wells in March. And Royer has only won 3 of his 15 matches on hard courts on the ATP tour this season.

• But the Russian is no longer able to easily dominate his matches: 5 losses in his last 9 matches, including against Van de Zandschulp, Nakashima and Martin Damm in Winston-Salem, where he was the #1 seed.

• At the US Open, Tiafoe eliminated him in 3 sets, including 2 tiebreaks. And here last year, he served for the match at 5-4 in the second set against Yibing Wu: 2 double faults, and a loss in 3 sets.

• The 2022 season statistics on hard courts on the ATP tour are quite telling.

🇫🇷 Valentin Royer

• 7.1 aces per match
• 68% of points won behind his 1st serve
• At least 1 set won in 6 of his 13 matches in best-of-3
• 7 wins for 1 loss in Hangzhou in his career

🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev

• 8.6 aces per match
• 76% of points won behind his 1st serve
• At least 1 set lost in 9 of his 24 matches in best-of-3
• 4 tiebreaks won out of 15

• Medvedev serves and returns better, no one will deny that. But as soon as a set goes to a tiebreak, he's no longer the favorite: 11 lost out of 15 this season on hard courts.

• Medvedev hasn't played since September 6th, and Royer already has his bearings on these courts. I see him holding his serve long enough to take a set, and that's all we're asking of him.