Tennis Prediction Arthur Rinderknech vs Brandon Nakashima: Montreal

Montreal 🇨🇦

• Rinderknech and Nakashima have faced each other 2 times on court. Both times, the same start to the match: no one gives up their serve, and the first set goes to a tiebreaker. 13 games in Lyon in 2023, 13 games in Istanbul in 2021.

• I'll say it right away: 2 matches don't make a rule. One was a Challenger in 2021, the other was played on clay.

• What the 2 previous matches describe, however, is exactly what these 2 profiles do to each other. The Frenchman is very solid behind his serve, the American has spent his week over 85% on his 1st serve. Neither of them gives an inch on their serve.

• And the price makes the line interesting. At 2.60, the book pays me better than my estimate of a scenario that has occurred in the only 2 previous meetings of this matchup.

• My reservation comes down to one game: the one where Nakashima breaks the opponent's serve. He's been returning much better than Rinderknech in recent weeks and a single break is enough for a 6-4 that buries the line before the middle of the set.

• To cash in, the Frenchman has to hold his 6 service games, or we have to reach 5-5 somehow. It's demanding, it's possible, and that's exactly what 2.60 pays.

• A first set arm-wrestle, 7-5 or 7-6. That's all this ticket needs, and it's already a lot.