Tomas Barrios Rincon Over 21.5 Games Prediction: US Open

🇺🇸 #USOpen (Q)

• Since July, Daniel Rincon has played 4 matches of 32 games or more, and it's not a calendar accident, it's simply his way of playing.

• The Spaniard is a counter-puncher who never relies on his serve. He wins on the return and through attrition, very rarely in two clean sets (7 of his last 10 matches have gone over 21.5 games).

• On the other side, Tomas Barrios Vera is a 'defensive' player. Same family of player, same lack of serve that ends the rallies. He has 6 out of 10 matches above the 21.5 games cut-off.

• 12 of the last 20 matches of these two have gone over the line, which is 60%, when the 1.71 odds imply 58.5%.

• And the market has tightened all day: the Spaniard has gone from 2.30 to 2.05. A matchup that is moving towards equilibrium is a matchup that lasts and I see a nice opportunity here.