Tennis Prediction Max Purcell vs Bicknell: Kingston Challenger

• A Challenger in Jamaica on a Monday night, this is the kind of match where we need to separate what we know from what we don't know. I'll give you the two columns.

• What we know: Max Purcell is a former Grand Slam player whose current ranking of 650th only measures a long absence. His real level dominates that of Bicknell head and shoulders, and his comeback season confirms it: 7 wins in 9 matches at the lower level, almost all in demolition.

On the other side, the Jamaican in 379th place lives at 42% of wins in Challenger, and his return is statistically one of the weakest we've ever come across in our records. Hence the second line: if Purcell wins, the lost set is unlikely against a player who doesn't break.

• What we don't know: why Purcell hasn't played for 48 days, nor what a return to the Challenger level is really worth after months away from the circuit.

• And what the weight of a festive evening in Kingston is for the local boy, in front of his audience, in the biggest home match of his life. These variables have no statistics.

• Nevertheless, I see a fairly significant level gap between these 2 players, and I have no trouble engaging 1.5 units on these 2 spots.