Cincinnati · Hard
Tennis Prediction Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobolli: Cincinnati
Our Pick
Tommy Paul
#21
Flavio Cobolli
#9
Tournament:
Cincinnati
Surface:
Hard
Our Bet
Confidence Level
70%
Good Confidence
Bet Details
1u
ML Tommy Paul
@ 1.61
Over 22.5 Games
@ 1.63
Best Odds
1.63 BwinVerified Track Record
+2.7%
ROI / Yield
55%
Win Rate
2.25
Avg. Odds
5,057
Verified Bets
Complete Analysis
Paul ML1.610.5u
Over 22.5 games Paul Cobolli1.630.5u
- On Wednesday evening, Tommy Paul and Flavio Cobolli played the same match. Paul beat Alexander Zverev 4-6 7-6 6-4.
- Cobolli beat Rafael Jodar 4-6 7-6 6-3. Lost the first set, snatched the second in a tiebreak, dominated the third set.
- The same evening, against the two biggest names left in the draw.
- It's not a coincidence, it's the way they're playing tennis right now.
- The 6 matches these two men have played this week have gone to 3 sets.
- 32, 28 and 33 games for Paul. 26, 34 and 32 for Cobolli. The shortest of the 6 is already above the line.
- There's a mechanical reason for this: they both win 74% of their points behind the first serve this week, the exact same figure.
- At this level, you hold your serve but can't impose it on anyone, and the two know how to break each other. It gives sets that go back and forth.
- Their only duel says the same thing: it was also here, in Cincinnati in 2024, 6-2 4-6 7-5 for Cobolli, 30 games.
- This precedent is also my best argument against my own ML, and I give it in full: the Italian won their only meeting, on this court, and he's coming off the biggest scalp of the tournament.
- What still makes me lean towards the American: 36 wins for 15 losses this season against 30-17, and especially 18-9 on hard when Cobolli is at 12-8.
- On this surface, the performance gap is real, and it's Paul who has the better return of the two.
- So I see a long match that the American ends up winning.
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