Tennis Prediction Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz: US Open

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• Tommy Paul has already beaten Carlos Alcaraz 2 times on hard courts, in Montreal in 2022 and in Toronto in 2023, both times in 3 sets.

• And in Cincinnati in 2023, it took Alcaraz 7-6 6-7 6-3 to get through. On this surface, these two don't settle things as quickly.

• Here, we're not asking Paul to win. We're asking him for a set. And in New York, that's his specialty: since 2022, 14 of his 16 full matches at the US Open have gone to four sets or more.

• This year again, 3 matches, 13 sets, including the Friday match in five sets against Bublik.

• On the other side, Alcaraz is coming back from a right wrist tenosynovitis that cost him the French Open, grass and Wimbledon.

• 3 matches since April, against Safiullin, Faria and Wu, and already a set dropped, 4-6 against Jaime Faria on Wednesday.

• The argument on the other side, I'll give it, and it's strong. In his last 10 matches at the US Open, Alcaraz has won 8 without losing a set.

• And in January in Melbourne, against this same Paul, he won 7-6 6-4 7-5. When he's in form, he doesn't mess around.

• But those 8 matches were the Alcaraz of before the break. And the Melbourne in January, those were 3 sets with a break difference, with a tiebreaker at 8-6 in the first.

• It only took a little for that match to go four sets. With a 100% wrist.

• This bet asks for a set from a man who always takes one here and at those odds, I'm going for it without regret.