Tennis Prediction Rafael Nadal vs Lorenzo Musetti: Montreal

🇨🇦 Montreal

• The price of this match has taken a strange turn today, and that's where we need to start. This morning the markets opened Rafael Jodar between 1.45 and 1.53. Tonight he's priced at 1.77.

• The real question mark for the Spaniard is the following: he's playing his 7th match in 10 days tonight.

• Except that the file pleads in the other direction. He played the Washington final on Monday, postponed by rain, and he was on the court in Montreal on Wednesday. He won that match by finishing much stronger than he had started against Corentin Moutet: 4-6 6-1 6-3.

• When questioned about this workload right after, he replied that stringing matches together is precisely what makes him better physically. On a physical matter, I believe the player before I believe a stats sheet.

• On the other hand, Lorenzo Musetti has only 24 matches this season, and 11 weeks without competition between May 12 and July 27. The freshness is on his side, the rhythm is not, and that's exactly what cost him the match last week.

• These two have modest serves and elite returns. On paper, this is the very definition of a breaks match.

• On the court too. On Wednesday, Jodar broke Corentin Moutet 6 times and had his serve broken 3 times. 9 breaks in a 26-game match, that's one game in three changing hands.

• And their only previous meeting, 6 days ago in Washington, had a minimum of 5 breaks just by reading the score: 1-6 6-1 6-4.

• One last figure, this time on the Italian side. On Wednesday, Musetti only converted 17% of his break points against Nicolas Mejia. This looks like an argument against us, but it's an argument for us: at that rate, he had to create a dozen in 21 games.

• The risk, I give it, and it's unique: a short match in two sets where both serves hold, but I'd be very surprised to see a duel of that kind when you look at the context of the match and the match-up between these two players.

• I see a long, tight match, with exchanges of breaks on both sides. Jodar in three sets.