Our Pick
Corentin Moutet
Corentin Moutet
#57
Jenson Brooksby
Jenson Brooksby
#77
Tournament: Los Cabos Surface: Hard

Our Bet

Confidence Level

70%
Good Confidence

Bet Details

0.75u
ML Corentin Moutet @ 1.87

Best Odds

1.87 Bwin

Verified Track Record

Verified on Bankrolly
+2.7% ROI / Yield
55% Win Rate
2.25 Avg. Odds
4,901 Verified Bets

Complete Analysis

Moutet1.870.75u
  • To understand this match, we have to start with what these two don't have. Neither Corentin Moutet nor Jenson Brooksby has a big serve. They have, by far, the two smallest first serves in this entire first round.
  • In other words, no one is going to get free points. Neither of them is going to hold a love game to recover after a bad stretch. Everything will be decided in the rallies, on the ability to move the other around and make him lose patience.
  • And they've already played this duel. In Toronto, exactly a year ago, on hard court, in the exact same power dynamics. Moutet had won 6-2, 6-1.
  • A year later, nothing has changed in the opposite direction: the Frenchman remains the higher ranked of the two, and on this specific surface, his season record is the least bad.
  • Because we have to say it clearly: neither of them is coming off a good year. Moutet has had a string of early exits on clay and then missed his grass season, and he hasn't played since late June. I'm not buying a player in form.
  • But I'm buying a player whose game is made for this type of battle. The lefty varies, slices, changes heights, looks for impossible angles and lives off long rallies. Brooksby, on the other hand, defends very well but constructs less: he suffers against this kind of opponent more than he disrupts them.
  • This is exactly what happened in Toronto, and it's what makes me come back to the Frenchman here, despite a season that no one will defend.
  • I see him winning after a long, ugly match at times, with lots of breaks on both sides and a player who will have simply better endured the boredom than the other.

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Match Result

Prediction Lost ✗

Pogz
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