Tennis Prediction Gaël Monfils vs Learner Tien: Montreal

🇨🇦 Montreal

• For once, it's the underdog who arrives with rhythm in his legs. Gaël Monfils played on Tuesday and he eliminated Kamil Majchrzak, world No. 67, in two straight sets. Learner Tien, on the other hand, was exempt from the first round and hasn't played a match in eight days (2-set loss to Mannarino in Washington).

• Moreover, the young American is not the kind of favorite who steamrolls. His serve is by far the weakest part of his game: he wins his matches by returning, not by stringing together bagel games. In his last 10 outings, 7 have gone to 3 sets or more, with tiebreaks against Felix Auger-Aliassime, Marton Fucsovics or Alexander Bublik.

• In other words, he wins often, but he rarely wins quickly. This is exactly the type of opponent we want when we're buying games and a set rather than a win.

• On the other side, at 39 and world No. 326, the Frenchman has just reminded that he still knows how to perform at a high level and that he is comfortable in this tournament: 5 quarterfinals and 2 semifinals here in his career.

• On Tuesday, he didn't drop serve once in the second set, in front of a crowd that is just waiting to carry him. He finished the match with 84% of points won behind his 1st serve, which is relatively encouraging.

• Let's be realistic: Tien is world No. 19, he has beaten very big players this season, and he should logically get through this round. Stringing two matches in less than 48 hours at this age is no small feat either.

• But I'm not asking for an exploit or a win. I'm asking for this match to remain a match: tight sets, a tiebreak somewhere, and a Monfils who hangs in there until the end like he did on Tuesday. That's exactly what I see happening.