Tennis Prediction Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Umag

Umag 🇭🇷

• I watched the end of Davidovich Fokina's match yesterday, and I didn't get the impression of a future semi-finalist: I saw a player finish on one leg. So tonight, I tend to see value on Alex Molcan.

• The score sheet says 6-4, 7-5 and a qualification without losing a set. The court told a different story: 2h05 of struggle against the 99th player in the world, and especially this 4-0 in the second set that became 4-5, five games lost in a row when the physical condition started to deteriorate.

• This ankle has been dragging since the spring. Twisted in training before the grass court season, it gave way again in the middle of the match at Wimbledon about ten days ago, with an MRI mentioned afterwards. And clay is the surface that solicits it the most: almost every point ends in a slide.

• On the other side, the draw is nothing like an easy opponent for a body in jeopardy. Alex Molcan is a lefty, 101st in the world, and clay is by far his best surface: about twenty wins on clay this season.

• He is also one of the best returners on the circuit, especially on the opponent's second serve. Exactly the profile that turns a diminished serve into a nightmare.

• The Slovak arrives in good form. Down a set and a break last night against Prizmic in front of his home crowd, he reversed the momentum until the Croatian's retirement in the decisive set, saving nine break points out of twelve in the process.

• I'm not going to pretend: over the last twelve months, these two players have not lived in the same world. First title in Majorca, second week at Wimbledon, the Spaniard's season is that of a top player, while Molcan was rebuilding his on the Challenger circuit.

• A 100% Davidovich Fokina wins this match, probably in two sets, but I'm doubtful about seeing Fokina focused on this tournament, especially with his physical issues.

• The two men have never faced each other, and discovering a scrappy lefty without any reference point, physically diminished, the day after narrowly avoiding a debacle, is a completely different match than the one the score line describes.

• I'm not asking for an exploit from Molcan: I'm asking him to make the rallies last because the more this match drags on, the more the favorite changes. I see the Slovak wearing him down and winning in two or three sets.