Tennis Prediction Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier: Kitzbuhel

Kitzbuhel 🇦🇹

• There are matches that we choose first for the history, and this one is one of them. Molcan has already faced Altmaier twice this season, and twice he has beaten him: on the clay of Munich, then at Wimbledon three weeks ago. When a player holds the key to a matchup like this, I don't like to bet against him.

• And this is not a random draw. Molcan is left-handed, he returns everything and hates to offer rhythm, exactly the tempo that bothers an Altmaier who needs to build his points from the back of the court. In their two duels, the German has never found the answer.

• The form also points in the same direction. The Slovak is coming off a semi-final in Umag last week, and he has started his Austrian fortnight by dismissing Ofner, the local favourite, without giving him any air. Clay remains by far his best surface, and he arrives there sharpened, aggressive, solid on serve.

• I'm not going to repaint Altmaier as a victim either: the German is even better ranked, and he has just eliminated the seeded Collignon in two straight sets. He arrives with legs and confidence, this is not an opponent of the day without stakes.

• But his year remains sluggish when Molcan is living his best weeks in a long time, and the mental edge is not on his side. The only caveat I note is the Slovak's load, a big run in Umag in his legs: if there is a flaw today, it is in freshness, not in tennis.

• At the odds offered, the market only makes him a lukewarm favourite, and I find that the history and dynamics are worth a bit more than that. I see Molcan confirm that he has the edge over Altmaier, and go through this round in two or three sets.