Montreal · Hard
Tennis Prediction Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida: Montreal
Alex Michelsen
#40
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#61
Tournament:
Montreal
Surface:
Hard
Our Bet
Confidence Level
70%
Good Confidence
Bet Details
0.75u
HC Alex Michelsen -2.5 (games)
@ 1.5
Best Odds
1.5 BwinVerified Track Record
+2.7%
ROI / Yield
55%
Win Rate
2.25
Avg. Odds
4,901
Verified Bets
Complete Analysis
Michelsen -2.5 games (HDP)1.500.75u
- This bet doesn't just ask Alex Michelsen to win. It asks him to win by 3 games or more. It's a high bar, and I'd rather put it out there right away than hide it in the middle of the text.
- That's why I think he clears it. His last 8 wins have all ended with at least 3 games in hand. Francisco Cerundolo this week, Jan-Lennard Struff before him, Adrian Mannarino and Mackenzie McDonald in Washington, and 4 others.
- It's not a calendar accident, it's his way of playing. Michelsen is a returner before being a server, and when he takes a match, he takes it by breaking, not by holding.
- On the other side, Daniel Merida has the most fragile serve of anything I've watched this week. He gets almost nothing for free on his serve, and he has to defend each of his service games.
- This player can perfectly win a match, he did it this week against Ugo Humbert in 2 straight sets. But he wins it by defending, and defending for 2 hours against a returner, it ends up costing games somewhere.
- They've already crossed paths this season, in Indian Wells, on hard: 6-3 6-4 Michelsen. A 5-game gap, today's line would have held.
- Now the honesty, and it counts. I'm not selling you a bargain here. At 1.60, this ticket requires Michelsen to cover in the vast majority of matches he wins, and a streak of 8 doesn't guarantee a 9th.
- Two more caveats, given frankly. This will be his 11th match in 17 days. And 3 of those 8 wins barely made it by 2 games.
- One last, and it's the most concrete: Merida served 4 aces against Humbert, with 74% of points won behind his 1st serve. The night his serve holds, this ticket is dead.
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Match Result
Prediction Lost ✗
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