Daniel Merida HC +1.5 sets Prediction: Montreal

🇨🇦 Montreal

• After Madrid earlier in the season, Montreal is the confirmation tournament for Daniel Merida, 21 years old, who has been playing brilliant tennis for a few days.

• And I'll say it as I think it: we have a generational talent here, and part of the circuit hasn't understood it yet.

• He is still seen as a 'clay court player', a 'Challenger player', but his results say otherwise: 15 wins for 6 losses on hard courts this season, exactly the same percentage as on clay.

• His fortnight in Montreal, starting from the qualies: Draxl, Humbert, Michelsen, and on Saturday a 6-3 6-1 execution of Griekspoor, the man who had just eliminated Zverev, an exceptional performance, especially on the backhand with a 9.1 rating according to TennisInsights.

• Heavy ball striking, patience when needed, very high tennis IQ, he's not playing a supporting role, he's executing a plan.

• On the other side, Learner Tien is an immense returner, and he deserves his favorite status. But his serve is the most discreet of the quarterfinals, his quadriceps have sent worrying signals on Friday, he admitted it himself at the net to Tommy Paul, and this quarterfinal will be his 5th match in 6 days.

• Montreal is extremely slow this season, 'like clay' according to Arthur Fils, so this match will be played from the baseline.

• And from the baseline, I think Merida outclasses everyone in this part of the draw. Jodar has already shown this season that Tien can be dominated by this generation: Dani has the weapons to do it again.

• I'm selling you a conviction, and I'm signing it: a minimum set, and I wouldn't be surprised if this guy takes down the whole draw with his current level of play.

• It's hard not to try something on the Spaniard who seems to be walking on water in these playing conditions, he's confident and at this price, I'm going for it without regret.