Tennis Prediction Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner: Rome

I think this bet will lose 9 times out of 10 according to the markets, and it's not 'illogical' when you see Jannik Sinner's completely exceptional form at the moment.

The Italian has just signed his 32nd consecutive win in a Masters 1000 tournament, he's playing almost perfect tennis, ultra clean, ultra consistent, with an ability to raise his level in important moments that's becoming completely absurd.

But precisely because of the context and the sequence of events, I still want to try something here.

Because on the other side, it's not just anyone, it's Daniil Medvedev, the winner of the 2023 Rome Masters 1000.

One of the few players on the circuit capable of completely blowing up the scripts written in advance.

We've already seen him in this role in the past, notably when he had stopped Carlos Alcaraz's monstrous streak at Indian Wells with a totally unexpected 6-3 7-6 victory at the time.

And today, even if Sinner remains the obvious favorite, I tend to think that Medvedev's real chances are a bit higher than what the odds suggest.

Not 1 time out of 10 as the market suggests, but maybe 2 times out of 10.

Why? Because the sequence is starting to become huge for Sinner in recent weeks.

And above all, we've started to see some small signs of physical fragility against Rublev in the previous round.

Nothing alarming obviously, but enough to say that in a big tactical and physical battle against Medvedev, it could become interesting.

And above all, Daniil is exactly the kind of player capable of completely disrupting Sinner's rhythm: huge quality of court coverage, ability to lengthen the rallies, variations of pace, tactical intelligence and above all a ability to make the matches 'complicated' when he needs to.

The last confrontation between the two, in the Indian Wells final this season, was decided on details: 7-6 7-6 Sinner.

And despite the defeat, Medvedev had managed to remain extremely threatening throughout the match.

So yes, at 11, I already consider this bet as almost lost before it even starts, but for a very small stake of around 0.25u, I find the spot too tempting not to try.