Tennis Prediction Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Gorzny: US Open

🇺🇸 Gorzny +9.5 games (HDP) | 1.71 · 0.5u

• For this ticket to win, Daniil Medvedev needs to win by 10 games or more. A 6-4 6-4 6-4 is 6 games. A 6-3 6-3 6-3 is 9 games. Both pass.

• And most importantly: as soon as there is a 4th set, it's practically validated. A 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-4 is 22 games to 18, which is a 4 game difference. In 5 sets, the difference is close to zero.

• In other words, this ticket only loses on a large 3-0. Like a 6-2 6-2 6-2.

• Medvedev hasn't produced that since June. Since then, he's 4 wins for 4 losses. Beaten by Martin Damm 7-5 6-3 last week, by Brandon Nakashima, by Botic Van de Zandschulp.

• On the other side, Sebastian Gorzny just won a 5-set match in R1. 3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 7-6 against Raphael Collignon, decided in the 5th set tiebreaker.

• 32 sets played since June, a tiebreaker in 5 of his last 8 matches. Gorzny is a player who hangs in there in each set played, even more so in Grand Slams.

• The risk is a Medvedev who suddenly finds his tennis again. He beat Hugo Gaston 6-4 6-2 6-4 in the first round, that wasn't bad. But 10 games difference is a lot to ask of a player who is doubting, especially when he is such a heavy favorite.