Tennis Prediction Alina Korneeva vs Coco Gauff: Toronto

🇨🇦 Toronto

🇷🇺 Korneeva +5.5 games · 1.58 odds | 0.75u

• You may not know Alina Korneeva yet, a 19-year-old, world #89. Toronto is making the introductions: 4 wins this week, including a 6-2 6-2 demonstration over Emma Navarro and a clean win over Iva Jovic on Friday.

• Her record on hard courts this season deserves a close look: 26 wins for 6 losses. She's not a second-week surprise guest, she's a player who's been winning matches since January, with her return game as a strong point.

• On the other side, Coco Gauff, world #4, and I won't pretend: she's above, she just dispatched Sakkari, and she can close out this match. My bet doesn't say otherwise. It says: not by 6 games.

• Because Gauff's game is all or nothing, and her serve goes through storms: 9 double faults in her first match here. Against a returner of this level, each storm costs a game, and each game counts for this line.

• The market, moreover, is telling something: the Russian's odds have been dropping since Saturday morning. Someone is buying Korneeva, and I don't believe much in randomness in these movements.

• The reserve, I give it: at 19, a round of 16 against a top 5, it can also be played tense, and the 6-2 6-3 straight win is a real scenario. It's the one the line has to beat, and that's exactly why it pays 1.58.

• 6-4 6-4, 6-4 6-3, one set fought somewhere, or the full upset: all these paths cash. I take the margin, not the upset.