Tennis Prediction Jesper De Jong vs Jan Choinski: Estoril

Estoril 🇵🇹

• Two players in difficulty will cross paths in Estoril today, and I'm still coming back to Jesper De Jong, the one who cost me a line in Sweden. Because the two disappointments of last week don't tell the same story at all.

• That of the Dutchman first: beaten in Bastad by Baez, a pure clay-courter who went on to the quarterfinals. Losing this battle of patience against this profile, on this clay, does not call into question what has made his season on clay.

• That of Jan Choinski is of a different nature: the day after his title in Braunschweig, the Briton stumbled at the first hurdle against Basilashvili. The step between his Challenger level and the ATP level remains high, and it's the second time this summer that it reminds him of it.

• The match-up appeals to me even more: Choinski lives off his first shot and his serve, his whole game seeks the free point. De Jong, it's the opposite: an untiring counter-puncher who puts one more ball back, again and again, and who has made the neutralization of big hitters a specialty on clay.

• And the setting chooses its side: the heavy clay of Estoril, by the ocean, is one of the slowest on the circuit. The serve weighs less, the rally lasts forever, and the Briton's free points will be rare.

• A note of honesty on their history: the most recent duel is for Choinski, last February, but on the fast hard court of Dubai, the exact opposite of today's conditions. Their only explanation on clay, on the other hand, was short-lived: 6-3, 6-3 for the Dutchman.

• My scenario flows naturally, De Jong extends each rally and wears down Choinski through attrition, in two sets or at the end of a match that stretches out.