Tennis Prediction Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti: Washington

Washington 🇺🇸

• (The match will take place on Friday evening and not today)

• The market is changing its mind about this quarter-final, hour after hour. I prefer to be ahead of this movement than behind it: I'm taking Rafael Jodar while he's still priced correctly.

• First, the Spaniard's record, because he no longer resembles that of a prospect: 19 years old, 24th in the world, 41 wins for 12 losses this season, including 20 wins for 7 losses on hard courts. These are numbers of a top player on the circuit.

• His week in Washington is clear: Arthur Fils defeated 7-6, 6-3, then Kei Nishikori swept 6-3, 6-2. Not a set dropped, and a level that is rising from one match to the next.

• On the other hand, Lorenzo Musetti's return commands respect: 2 wins in 2 matches after 10 weeks off, that's already an achievement in itself. That's the credit, and it's real.

• But last night against Vukic, the tennis was far from his standards: a set abandoned, and long sequences where an opponent who was not supposed to pose these problems to him played into his hands. Getting past that Vukic and passing the Jodar test are two very different exams.

• The background of the match-up doesn't help anything: Musetti needs time and rhythm to set up his variations, and that's exactly what Jodar has been refusing everyone for ten days: he returns everything, he gives nothing, he makes every point be replayed.

• Musetti remains 15th in the world, and a talent like that can put everything back in place in one afternoon, that's the bet on the other side, and I understand why they're taking it. Me, between a player who is still looking for his tennis and a young player chasing his 42nd win of the year, I've chosen.

• I see the Spaniard impose his density from the start and make a player in recovery doubt on each serve. In two tight sets or in three, but with him at the end.